Trinidad and Tobago’s economy is projected to contract in 2026, according to the World Bank’s latest regional economic outlook, adding to concerns about the country’s growth prospects amid its continued dependence on the energy sector.
The Bank forecasts that the economy will shrink by 0.2 percent in 2026, before returning to growth of 2.5 percent in 2027. The projections reflect a challenging outlook for the twin-island republic as energy production, fiscal pressures and uncertainty surrounding new investment continue to affect economic performance.
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Trinidad and Tobago’s reliance on oil and natural gas remains a major factor shaping its economic outlook. The energy industry contributes significantly to national output and exports but provides relatively limited employment compared with other sectors. The World Bank has also identified ageing infrastructure and delays in bringing new energy projects onstream as risks to medium-term growth.
The Bank expects prospects to improve as new energy developments advance, although the timing and performance of those projects remain important uncertainties. Volatile international energy prices, trade uncertainty and possible project delays could also affect the pace of recovery.
The forecast comes amid wider economic challenges across the Caribbean, where growth prospects vary considerably between energy-producing countries and tourism-dependent economies. The World Bank projects regional growth of 2.2 percent in 2026, while several countries are expected to maintain positive growth despite external pressures.
For Trinidad and Tobago, the projected contraction highlights the importance of strengthening economic activity beyond the energy sector while maintaining investment in existing and new production. The outlook also underscores the need to manage fiscal and external pressures as the country navigates an uncertain global economic environment.
The World Bank’s figures are forecasts rather than final measurements of the country’s performance for the full year. Actual growth will depend on economic activity over the remaining months of 2026 and developments in the energy sector.
