The U.S. government’s reported effort to indict former Cuban President Raúl Castro is fueling speculation that Washington may be laying the groundwork for stronger action against Cuba, including the possibility of military intervention similar to the operation carried out earlier this year in Venezuela.
According to reports, U.S. prosecutors are preparing charges linked to the 1996 shootdown of two civilian aircraft operated by the Miami-based humanitarian group Brothers to the Rescue. The incident resulted in the deaths of four men, including three U.S. citizens. At the time, Castro served as Cuba’s defense minister.
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The Cuban government had argued that the aircraft violated Cuban airspace. However, an investigation by the United Nations’ International Civil Aviation Organization concluded that the planes were in international airspace when they were shot down.
Legal analysts say that while an indictment alone would significantly escalate tensions between Washington and Havana, it could also increase concerns that the Trump administration may pursue direct action against the Cuban government.
Former federal prosecutor Mitchell Epner told USA TODAY that if he were part of the Cuban leadership, he would view the possible indictment “as a fig leaf to cover an upcoming invasion.”
Former Florida State Attorney Dave Aronberg similarly suggested that the administration could attempt to use the indictment as leverage to pressure regime change in Cuba.
President Donald Trump has repeatedly spoken about wanting major political and economic changes in Cuba, at times describing the possibility of a U.S. “takeover” of the island if reforms are not implemented. Those comments, combined with recent U.S. military actions involving Venezuela and Iran, have intensified speculation about Washington’s intentions toward Havana.
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis also weighed in on the issue, publicly supporting the possible indictment and calling the Cuban government “outdated.”
The reported charges stem from one of the most controversial incidents in U.S.-Cuba relations. In February 1996, Cuban fighter jets shot down two unarmed planes belonging to Brothers to the Rescue, a group known for assisting Cuban migrants and conducting anti-Castro flights near Cuban territory.
Reports over the years have suggested that Raúl Castro was directly involved in authorizing the military operation. Audio recordings later obtained by media outlets allegedly captured Castro discussing plans surrounding the shootdown with Cuban military officials.
Observers note that the recent removal of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro from power by U.S. forces earlier this year has heightened concerns in Havana. Venezuela had long been one of Cuba’s closest allies and a major supplier of oil to the island. Since Maduro’s ouster, Cuba has faced worsening fuel shortages and severe blackouts.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio has also continued to advocate for political change in Cuba, arguing that the current system has failed economically and politically.
Legal experts, however, caution that any military operation tied to the indictment could face major constitutional and international law challenges. Under the United Nations Charter, military force is generally permitted only in self-defense or with approval from the U.N. Security Council. Additionally, the U.S. Constitution grants Congress, not the president, the authority to declare war.
Despite those concerns, analysts say previous cases involving foreign leaders, including former Panamanian ruler Manuel Noriega and Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro, demonstrate that U.S. administrations have previously used criminal indictments alongside broader geopolitical strategies.
Raúl Castro, now 94, officially stepped away from leadership roles several years ago but is still widely viewed as an influential figure within Cuba’s political establishment and the ruling Communist Party.
