Former Finance Minister and Opposition MP Colm Imbert has warned that Trinidad and Tobago could face a severe economic downturn within months, arguing that the country is already experiencing a recession and that the Government’s latest budget fails to address worsening economic conditions.
Imbert made the remarks during parliamentary debate on the 2026–2027 national budget, presented by Finance Minister Davendranath Tancoo. He rejected the Government’s financial projections, describing the budget figures as a “mirage” and “fictitious,” and questioned whether the administration’s economic policies would be sufficient to stabilise the country.
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“If it has not already crashed, it will crash within the next couple of months,” Imbert warned, expressing concern about declining economic activity, reduced business confidence and mounting pressure on public finances.
Citing figures from the Ministry of Finance’s economic review, Imbert pointed to an estimated 2.2 percent contraction in real gross domestic product (GDP) for 2026. He also highlighted declines across several sectors, including petrochemicals, energy, construction, accommodation and food services, and trade.
The petrochemical sector recorded a particularly sharp contraction, with output declining by 19.8 per cent, according to the figures he cited. The energy sector contracted by 6.6 per cent, while the non-energy sector recorded a seven percent decline.
Imbert also raised concerns about domestic economic indicators, including falling cement and motor vehicle sales, weaker construction-related retail activity and declining tourist arrivals. He argued that these trends reflected reduced economic activity and weakening confidence among businesses and consumers.
The former finance minister further pointed to a slowdown in business borrowing, saying growth in lending to businesses fell from 11.4 percent in April 2025 to 0.6 percent in July 2026. He argued that the figures suggested companies were becoming increasingly reluctant to borrow and invest in expansion.
Imbert also criticised the Government’s revenue measures, alleging that at least 70 new taxes, increased taxes and fees had been introduced between May 2025 and September 2026. He maintained that the additional financial burden on businesses could undermine investment and economic recovery.
He questioned the Government’s management of foreign exchange reserves, arguing that borrowing and withdrawals from the Heritage and Stabilisation Fund were helping to sustain the country’s external financial position rather than stronger domestic production and export earnings.
The 2026–2027 budget projects expenditure of approximately TT $63.37 billion and revenue of TT $59.73 billion, leaving a projected fiscal deficit of about TT $3.64 billion. The Government has presented its fiscal programme as an effort to manage public finances while addressing the country’s economic challenges.
However, Imbert argued that the budget did not provide sufficient measures to stimulate private-sector activity, encourage investment or address the underlying weaknesses affecting the energy industry and wider economy.
Trinidad and Tobago’s economic performance remains closely linked to its oil and natural gas industries, which generate significant export earnings and government revenue. Declining production and disruptions in petrochemical operations have added pressure to an economy already grappling with fiscal constraints.
While Imbert’s warning has intensified debate over the country’s economic outlook, his prediction of an imminent crash remains a political assessment rather than an established outcome. Official economic data will be important in determining whether the contraction deepens and whether the Government’s budget measures can stabilise activity.
