Guyana and Venezuela on the Edge of War

Venezuela has escalated significantly its dispute with Guyana over the Essequibo territory by making a bold move, holding a referendum as to whether to exercise sovereignty over Essequibo the last oil rich region that represents about 2/3 of Guyana, and this of course has opened old wounds and has intensified the tension between the two nations.

This has been a longstanding row over the border between Guyana and Venezuela, now taken to an unprecedented level by the current move of the President of Venezuela, Nicolas Maduro. This long standing dispute between Guyana and Venezuela goes back over 120 years when a legal process was devised in 1897 called the Treaty of Washington, whereby Venezuela agreed with the British that arbitration would be a full perfect and final settlement of the borders; however, Venezuela refused to recognize the result of the arbitration since 1962 and so has claimed that there needs to be a resolution of the Essequibo territory because the Essequibo river and the comprising 2/3 of Guyana landmass, a territory is in dispute.

Despite a treaty obligation, legal consideration and judicial award, and the fact that for 63 years Venezuela has acted in general accord with the treaty, it has however been consistently threatening through subversion and in imitation that the territorial ambition of Essequibo territory was one that they clearly had in mind;  this claim has been given new impetus by the finding of some of the largest world crude oil deposits off the coast of the Essequibo, and in light of this President Maduro has intensified his effort to obtain control over the region.

In January of 2021 Maduro escalated tension by making a vow to reconquer the Essequibo region which is a Guyanese sovereign territory in the eyes of the international community. The escalation of the claim to Essequibo by Venezuela took place when President Maduro ordered a referendum in Venezuela as to whether or not Essequibo should be a part of Venezuela’s territories –this was held on December 3rd- according to Venezuela’s electoral authority more than 95% of the voters supported the country’s claim; this gives rise to the question, what is President Maduro going to do next.

The government of Guyana had previously approached the International Court of Justice for provisional measures and to request that Venezuela take no steps to alter or change the borders. The Court has since ruled that Venezuela should take no steps to interfere with existing borders, and that places the Court fully in support of Guyana but definitely in conflict with Venezuela and its ambition.

President Maduro has by his action dismissed the World Court’s jurisdiction over the dispute; he is however under growing international pressure and the threat of US sanctions on his government and Venezuela in fact has its own issue around  presidential elections to be held, so clearly this border crisis is providing President Maduro with a distraction, and of course the oil rich territory provides an incentive for Venezuela to pursue its border dispute. It is the general hope of the region that good sense will prevail and that there would be no further escalation and a means of negotiating the dispute would be undertaken with  international institutions. 

The various CARICOM governments have already expressed their desire  that the region remain a region of peace and non-conflict and pushing for that to be the outcome. The US has had military advisers in Guyana in the recent days, I guess in preparation for an escalation that might take place, but there can be no winners in a war over Essequibo; it has to be an internationally determined solution where all parties can have their say and can be legally and diplomatically resolved, and so it is our position that there should be no further escalation of the situation, that international institutions and the mechanisms that are in place to resolve these should be used, respected and adhered to, and  President Maduro should refrain from taking any further action and continue to try to resolve the issue with Guyaya through the true spirit of the Geneva experience and the UN mechanism.