In his 1823 State of the Union address, President James Monroe introduced what became known as the Monroe Doctrine, asserting that the United States would oppose any further European colonization in the Americas to protect newly independent republics. This doctrine symbolized U.S. resistance to foreign intervention in the Western Hemisphere and justified various military and commercial actions in Latin America and the Caribbean as American influence grew in the 19th and early 20th centuries.
However, Chinese political and economic might in the area has grown dramatically over the last two decades; one foreign policy expert told Newsweek that Beijing intends to “turn the Caribbean Sea into a Chinese lake.”
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Additionally, there are worries that the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) may become less influential in the Caribbean because of the budget cuts President Donald Trump’s administration has made since taking office in January.
The switch was referred to as a “huge gift” to Beijing by one regional analyst.
China’s economic might has exploded in recent decades, making it by far the United States’ biggest geopolitical adversary. The value of Chinese manufacturing professionals reached $1.81 trillion in 2023, rising 30 times from 2002, according to data from the World Trade Organization, while the US trade imbalance was more than $1.2 trillion.
Chinese investment and commerce in the Caribbean and Central America have grown significantly in recent years. Data from the House Foreign Affairs Committee shows that when $6.1 billion in Chinese exports and $1.9 billion in imports were registered in 2019, commerce between China and the Caribbean increased from $1 billion in 2002 to $8 billion.
The committee recognized significant Chinese initiatives, such as a $600 million investment to upgrade the Dominican Republic’s electrical infrastructure and the construction of a $3 billion deep-water port on Grand Bahama, which is only 55 miles from the U.S. mainland. Forbes reports that China is investing $773 million in Suriname and $2.1 billion in Jamaica.
Ten Caribbean nations, including Cuba, Suriname, Guyana, Trinidad & Tobago, Grenada, Barbados, Dominica, Antigua & Barbuda, Dominican Republic, and Jamaica, have joined Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative as of 2022. Critics claim that this significant Chinese economic initiative is a front for geopolitical goals.
According to Evan Ellis, a research professor at the U.S. Army War College Strategic Studies Institute who focuses on the relationship between China and Latin America, Beijing is closely monitoring the broader strategic picture, even though individual Chinese companies primarily have commercial goals.
Ellis stated, “Although I don’t believe that Chinese companies pursue presence in the region principally because of the military value, the military opportunities that such commercial presence, and political and military relationships potentially provide in time of war, are obvious to the People’s Liberation Army and the Chinese government.”
He further noted, “On a per capita basis, there is no other part of the Western Hemisphere that receives the quantity of trips for its police and defense force officials two Chinese military institutions, gifts of police and military vehicles and material, visits by Chinese hospital ships, and other [People’s Liberation Army] military diplomacy as does the Caribbean.”
According to Alan Mendoza, executive director of the Henry Jackson Society, a security think group located in London, Beijing is actively attempting to undermine the United States in the Caribbean.
“China appears intent on trying to turn the Caribbean Sea into a Chinese lake with its strategic investments and attempts to secure influence in the region,” Mendoza noted.
“The Trump administration could easily employ a carrot and stick approach to roll this back, however, by offering trade and investment inducements of its own while making clear the consequences of ignoring a generous offer.”
According to John Lee, a senior scholar at the Hudson Institute think tank and a former senior national security advisor to the Australian foreign minister from 2016 to 2018, Chinese actions pose a “threefold” danger to American dominance in Latin America and the Caribbean.
Lee stated, “First, increased economic, financial, and technological dependency on China offers Beijing opportunity to exert influence in the geopolitical decisions and even domestic politics of smaller states…Second, China seeks to redefine and change the rules and standards used by nations to conduct commerce and trade in its favor.”
The unification of Taiwan with the Chinese mainland has been referred to as “inevitable” by Chinese President Xi Jinping, who has not ruled out the use of force to settle the dispute. To undermine Taiwan’s international credibility, China has been aggressively pressuring nations in the Caribbean and Central America to sever ties with Taiwan. Nicaragua, the Dominican Republic, and Panama have severed their long-standing diplomatic relations with Taiwan in recent years.
China now has a far greater influence on the strategically important Panama Canal, since Hong Kong-based businesses now operate ports close to its entry. Although some analysts caution against overestimating this threat, this has raised worries about China’s potential to impede canal trade during times of conflict. U.S. law enforcement has also seen an increase in interactions with suspected Chinese illegal migrants at the Canadian and Mexican borders. China sees mass migration from Caribbean and Latin American failing nations as a means of snagging American resources.
China may try to shut off U.S. activities on the southern border in the case of a crisis between the two countries. In order to benefit China, the Trump administration has cut staff at the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) and intends to shut it down. This might lessen American influence in the Caribbean and Central America. USAID has provided significant money to civil society organizations in nations that support Beijing, and reducing this support is perceived as a gift to China. In general, the United States finds it difficult to restrain Chinese influence in the area without offering alternatives, and the U.S.’s inability to address the requirements of Caribbean and Central American nations is one factor contributing to China’s increasing influence.
